What a strong El Niño could mean for your home, car and monthly budget

Johannesburg - The Pacific Ocean may be thousands of kilometres away, but what is happening in its waters could eventually reach much closer to home.

A strong El Niño is developing, with the World Meteorological Organisation expecting the event to strengthen through August to October. While the term “Super El Niño” is increasingly being used to describe the possibility of an exceptionally strong event, it is not an official scientific classification.

For South Africans, however, the label matters less than the potential consequences.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon associated with warmer-than-normal waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean, which can alter global weather patterns. In Southern Africa, it is commonly associated with hotter, drier conditions across much of the summer rainfall region.

That can sound like a drought story. It is actually much bigger than that.

“The mistake is to think of El Niño simply as a drought story. It is really a story about what happens when several risks begin talking to each other,” warns Caesar Balona, Head of Risk Intelligence & Engineering and an Actuary at Old Mutual Insure.

The chain reaction starts with heat and water, with extended heat and dry conditions putting pressure on water supplies, agriculture and electricity infrastructure.

For households, that can eventually translate into higher food prices and greater pressure on already stretched budgets. For farmers, poor rainfall can mean lower crop yields and livestock losses. For businesses that depend on agriculture, transport or reliable water supplies, the effects can travel further through the economy.

“A drought can affect agricultural production, which affects supply chains, businesses and ultimately consumers. When households are already under financial pressure, even relatively small increases in everyday costs can have a significant impact,” says Balona.

Further, such hot, dry conditions can increase the risk of wildfires, while prolonged dryness can contribute to soil movement and subsidence in vulnerable areas, potentially affecting buildings and other infrastructure.

Your car and home are not off the hook either, because El Niño does not mean South Africa will simply stop experiencing storms.

“In fact, one of the most important messages for consumers is that drought and damaging storms can coexist,” Balona warns.

He explains that El Niño influences broad climate patterns, but it does not determine the weather on any particular day or guarantee that every part of the country will be dry. The South African Weather Service has stressed that an El Niño forecast should not be interpreted as a rainfall forecast.

“Therefore,” Balona adds, “intense thunderstorms, hail and flash flooding can still occur, potentially damaging homes, vehicles and infrastructure.”

For motorists, sudden storms can mean hail damage and flash flooding, while damaged roads and drainage infrastructure can create additional hazards.

“People often prepare for the risk they expect and forget about the risks they don't. Even if conditions are predominantly hot and dry, you still need to be prepared for a severe storm. Climate volatility means we need to think about multiple risks rather than one weather event,” Balona says.

What can consumers do now?

“The biggest advantage of a climate warning is the time it provides to prepare. Small, practical steps can make a meaningful difference, whether conditions become hot and dry or severe storms develop. Before storms arrive, homeowners can check for loose roof tiles, clear gutters and stormwater channels, make sure downpipes direct water away from the property, and secure loose outdoor items.”

“At the same time, households can repair water leaks, use water carefully, prepare for possible water restrictions or power interruptions, and review their budgets for unexpected expenses. These measures cannot prevent severe weather, but they can help reduce exposure, minimise avoidable damage, and make it easier to manage disruption,” says Balona. And perhaps most importantly, consumers should understand their insurance cover before disaster strikes.

Check what is covered, understand applicable exclusions and excesses, and make sure important household and vehicle information is readily available should a claim become necessary.

“Preparation does not mean predicting exactly what is going to happen; it means recognising that the risk environment may be changing and taking sensible steps while you still have time to do so,” he says.

The warning should not be about panic. A strong El Niño does not guarantee a disaster. Its effects vary by location, and the strength of an El Niño event does not automatically determine the severity of its impacts. But the potential for multiple pressures to occur at the same time makes preparation particularly important,” Balona says.

“We cannot control the weather, but we can control how prepared we are for it, and the households and businesses that take sensible steps now will be in a far stronger position if conditions become more severe.”