How changing weather and crime trends impact property insurance

Johannesburg - Keeping your property safe used to be as simple as locking the doors and setting an alarm. Today, however, shifting weather patterns and evolving crime trends are changing how South African insurers assess risk. To stay protected, homeowners and businesses need insurance that keeps pace with these growing threats. This is according to Ryno de Kock, Head of Distribution at PSG Insure.

Rising crime remains a concern

Recent crime statistics show that residential burglary remains the most prevalent property-related crime across the country, making up 44% of all property crimes.

To remain insurable and to reduce the risk of claim repudiation, home and business owners must keep their security features well maintained and fully operational. “This includes checking that alarm systems are functional and linked to armed response and back-up power where required, ensuring all locks, gates and burglar bars are in place, and updating insurers if any structural changes impact access points or visibility,” says de Kock.

Additional risk-mitigation measures, such as CCTV, electric fencing and motion-sensor lighting, may also reduce premiums or improve underwriting outcomes in high-crime areas.

Weather is the new risk frontier

While crime is a persistent issue, extreme weather has emerged as an equally serious concern in recent years. De Kock says that the tragic June 2025 floods in Mthatha, where over 100 people lost their lives and entire neighbourhoods were submerged, serves as a stark reminder that climate-related risks are escalating.

Once considered seasonal anomalies, these extreme weather events are becoming regular occurrences, with costly consequences for the insured. Over the past decade, local insurers have seen significant increases in claims related to:

• Flash floods and blocked drainage systems
• Lightning damage during storms
• High-wind destruction of roofs and walls
• Fire outbreaks in urban-wildland areas (such as suburbs around Table Mountain)
• How some insurers may assess your property’s risk

To better understand risk exposure, some insurers have adopted a method called geocoding. This uses GPS-based data, historic claims information, and predictive modelling to assess how risky a location is for certain losses.

“Geocoding allows insurers to evaluate not just where past claims have occurred, but also where future risks may emerge. For example, areas not traditionally prone to flooding may now be flagged as high risk due to shifting rainfall patterns and inadequate drainage,” he says. Similarly, properties bordering fire-prone vegetation may carry higher premiums or be excluded altogether from certain types of cover.

This means your quote could be affected by where your property is situated, even if you’ve never made a claim before. If your area is identified as high-risk, insurers may apply additional conditions, increase excesses, or, in some cases, decline the request for cover altogether.

Maintain your property this winter

With the colder months set to continue for a little while longer, don’t forget to perform the recommended winter maintenance tasks to prevent avoidable claims and keep your policy valid. This includes:

• Clearing gutters and drains to avoid water build-up and flooding
• Servicing heating equipment to reduce fire risk
  Checking that your roof is in good repair and free of loose tiles or leaks
• Finally, de Kock emphasises the importance of notifying your insurer of any major changes or renovations, particularly if these affect the structure, use or risk profile of the property.

Get the most up-to-date advice

With crime and climate risks constantly evolving, insurers are regularly reviewing and adapting how they assess and price cover. “If you’re ever unsure how these changes could affect your home or business insurance, a PSG Insure adviser will help you understand your exposure, identify practical risk-mitigation strategies, and ensure you have the right property insurance for your specific location and needs,” de Kock concludes.